台電:2019面臨限電 比預估早2年 – 中時電子報
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首頁
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中國時報
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台電:2019面臨限電 比預估早2年
2015年05月29日 04:10
中國時報
王玉樹、唐玉麟/台北報導
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4/10
台電昨發布最新「10年電源開發方案」預測,警告因經濟成長轉好,用電量增。(本報系資料照)
台電昨發布最新「10年電源開發方案」預測,警告因經濟成長轉好,用電量增,2019年電力備用容量率降到4.8%,跌破7.4%安全基準,當年全台至少限電1次,且北部優先。限電時點比預估提早2年。更讓人擔憂的是,2023年核二廠如期除役後,備用容量率數字進一步跌破零,落到-1.6%,2024年更降至-3%,供電機組容量完全不夠尖峰用電所需。直至2025年,通霄5號機組、高原、大潭幾個火力電廠完工商轉,備用容量率才會回升到2.7%。台電直說,數字如低於零,屆時不只限電一次,限電頻率增加將無法避免。
台電:2019面臨限電 比預估早2年 - 中時電子報
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首頁
日報
中國時報
焦點要聞
台電:2019面臨限電 比預估早2年
2015年05月29日 04:10
中國時報
王玉樹、唐玉麟/台北報導
小字型
中字型
大字型
點閱2787
我要評比
4/10
台電昨發布最新「10年電源開發方案」預測,警告因經濟成長轉好,用電量增。(本報系資料照)
台電昨發布最新「10年電源開發方案」預測,警告因經濟成長轉好,用電量增,2019年電力備用容量率降到4.8%,跌破7.4%安全基準,當年全台至少限電1次,且北部優先。限電時點比預估提早2年。更讓人擔憂的是,2023年核二廠如期除役後,備用容量率數字進一步跌破零,落到-1.6%,2024年更降至-3%,供電機組容量完全不夠尖峰用電所需。直至2025年,通霄5號機組、高原、大潭幾個火力電廠完工商轉,備用容量率才會回升到2.7%。台電直說,數字如低於零,屆時不只限電一次,限電頻率增加將無法避免。
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台電每年製作一次10年長期負載預測,最新完成「2015年電源開發方案」,是對2015年到2024年電力最新分析。去年報告中,今年備用容量率預估14.7%,2021年備用容量率才會低於歷史統計每年停電1次的7.4%基準點。但最新預測,今年備用率已跌至10.4%,且2019年降至4.8%,當年就須面臨至少1次限電。「主要是負載增加」,台電電源開發處長王振勇解釋,去年經濟成長率預估每年2.8%,今年對景氣判斷好轉,成長率預期提升至3.32%,用電量平均每年以1.9%成長,2026年用電尖峰負載4301萬瓩。新電源開發未增下,每年備用容量率才下修。綠色公民行動聯盟副祕書長洪申翰質疑,更多前瞻性節電計畫報告都已指出用電量年成長只有1.5%,台電明顯高估。廢核浪潮下,經濟部能源局長林全能昨宣布,經濟部6年內3度調高再生能源設置目標,要在2030年建置完成17250MW,較原目標擴增1.5倍。新聞辭典備用容量率每年備用容量占每年尖峰負載百分比。即全部發電機組在正常運轉下,可提供的最大能力,對應實際每小時最高用電量,得知系統還有多少供電餘裕。(王玉樹),